These were our suggestions for Tactical Voting in the GE 8th June 2017
Complete, all 650 constituencies analysed.
The list was designed to flatten the odds and bring about a hung Parliament. In this, we succeeded, although below expectations.
Before the GE, the main parties stood at 328 seats for the Conservatives, 232 for Labour, 54 for the SNP and 9 for the LibDems.
If the list were only 10% successful in relieving some of the seats under the Tories, they would drop 32 seats.
Those 32 seats, distributed across the other major parties, in proportion to their projected success rates on the List, would give us 295 seats for the Tories, 251 for Labour, 55 for the SNP and 26 for the LibDems.
The House hangs, but the Tories have 317, Labour 262, SNP 35 and LD 12.
The LibDem performance was particularly disappointing, meaning that the Coalition stigma that almost finished them in 2015 still affects their vote. There has been no improvement in their tactics, which largely prevented their potential gains from Tactical Voting.
The list attached shows that we got it right in 69% of all constituencies. That means that we either suggested the winner or, in the case of Tory wins, we got the second place right (we only suggested one seat for the Conservative party, and we got that one right.)
There is also an evaluation of the fate of the brave souls who voted against Article 50.
Of the 146 MPs in the previous Parliament who either abstained or voted against the Article 50 bill, 114 said “NAY” and 88 said “NAY” AND got reelected (or, if stood down, their party held.)
These results, added to the plentiful feedback we have received, will improve our algorithm; it will be a powerful tool to identify our suggestions for the next GE or by-elections.
At the end of the list there is a summary with the previous parliament, our suggestions and the election results.
Some 200 of these suggestions have been developed in consultation with other groups.
Colours for Constituencies:
Light Red, Constituency voted Leave
Light Green, Constituency voted Remain
Colours for Candidates Suggested:
Light Green: Suggested by VfE
Light Blue: Endorsed by The48%+
As for the logic of selection, after fitting the constituency and the candidates in the statistics:
– Is the seat being held by a Tory (or any sort of Kipper)?
*Work to replace the incumbent
– Is the seat being held by a non-Tory/Kipper?
*Work for the incumbent to hold the seat, if in any threat by a Tory/Kipper, or if not
*Work to replace the incumbent, if held by a Leaver non-Tory/Kipper
– All other alternatives
*Work for the incumbent to hold the seat, if Remainer
*Work to replace the incumbent, if unfriendly